GOP has extra clout in local elections this year

Published: Wednesday, July 4, 2012 at 7:56 p.m.

Last Modified: Wednesday, July 4, 2012 at 7:56 p.m.

The gap between the ranks of registered Republicans and Democrats locally is the widest its been in recent memory.

As of Monday, Marion County had 92,765 GOP voters, compared with 81,091 Democrats ? a margin of 11,674.

Yet despite their commanding lead among registered voters, Republicans still only make up 43 percent of the total electorate in Marion County.

Which means unless things change, fewer than half ? and more likely just a small percentage of that plurality ? will decide much of Marion County's government for the near future.

At the beginning of the election cycle, nine county-level offices were up for grabs.

Three were settled last month as soon as qualifying ended: Clerk of the Circuit Court David Ellspermann, Property Appraiser Villie Smith and Tax Collector George Albright ? all incumbent Republicans ? ran unopposed and were automatically returned to office for another four years.

Three of the remaining six Marion County contests have contenders from both major parties.

Those include the races for successors to County Commissioner Charlie Stone, Elections Supervisor Dee Brown and Schools Superintendent Jim Yancey.

While those contests will not be decided until November, the Republican candidates already hold considerable fundraising leads in all three, based on the latest campaign-finance reports.

On paper, the final three races also will not be decided until November. But the upcoming GOP primaries will go a long way to settling who the new officeholders will be.

Two of those three primary races ? both for the County Commission ? are open only to Republican voters.

Under Florida law primaries in which just one party fields candidates are open to all voters.

But the presence of any opposition in November restricts those would-be universal primaries to just that party's voters.

Locally, write-in candidates have filed in two County Commission primary elections, thus closing them.

The final race ? the Republican primary for sheriff ? would have been included in the closed group because a write-in filed.

Yet that contest was already shut off to non-Republicans because a candidate from a minor party had qualified.

Write-ins and minor-party candidates in Marion County have historically struggled to get out of single digits in the final voting percentage.

All county voters may cast ballots in races for county judge and the School Board because those offices are non-partisan.

The effects of write-in candidates was illustrated in a pair of elections from a few years ago.

In a 2007 special primary to decide Ocala's seat in the state Legislature ? the representative of more than 133,000 people ? a Republican write-in filed and thus limited the four-candidate race to GOP voters.

Kurt Kelly won with 2,782 votes.

That was just 35 percent of the 7,850 votes cast in that election ? and just 4.5 percent of the 62,025 voters in that House district.

Stone was re-elected in 2008 after 8,802 Republicans ? or 51 percent of the 17,184 who voted ? backed him to speak for more than 300,000 Marion residents.

Stone's tally represented just 4.3 percent of the 205,719 voters who could have participated had the write-in, a GOP executive committee member who dropped out before Election Day in November, not been on the ballot.

While the reason is unclear, a small fraction of non-Republican voters are turning to the GOP in time for the primary elections.

According to county elections officials, 614 voters have, since May 1, switched to the Republican Party from another party or no party at all.

On the other hand, 230 have left a party to opt for no party affiliation in that time, and 146 have joined the Democratic party from another affiliation.

The last day for registering to vote is July 16.

Early voting begins on Aug. 4.

Primary Election Day is Aug. 14.

Contact Bill Thompson at 867-4117 or at bill.thompson@starbanner.com.

Source: http://www.ocala.com/article/20120704/articles/120709888

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